Tuesday 15 January 2013

Approach of investor while using technical indicators

Investor and trader should focus on basic do’s and don’t while using technical indicators:

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

Do’s
•    The basic rules for trading the MACD would enter trend positions by referring only to the signal line calculation. Buy when the signal line moves above zero, and sell when the signal line falls below zero.
•    Watch for Kiss of life and Kiss of death patterns to catch a big move.
•    Price is supreme, confirmation of prices is important to initiate position.
Don’t:
•    One should not try to pre-empt the patterns or the crossover will happen.

Relative Strength Index:

Do’s:
•    A popular method of analyzing the RSI is to look for a divergences (both positive and negative) to get alert not react.
•    Look for stock coming out of Overbought and Oversold regions.
•    Act on divergences only on price confirmation (preferably averages) to initiate trade.
Don’t:
•    Basic mistake is seen when stock enters overbought zone, people refrain from long side and look for shorting.
•    Second basic mistake is seen when stock enters oversold zone, people refrain from short side and look for buying.
•    Don’t create bias when looking at overbought and sold regions

Stochastic:


Do’s:
•    One should look at crossover for trading purposes. For example stochastic value bounces from lower levels of 20 and starts trading above 30 then one should look for going long with price confirmation.
•    Similarly on the short side, value falls from the higher levels of 80 with the crossover and starts trading below 80 then one can sell/short.
•    Look for price confirmation (preferably averages) for initiating trade.

Don’t:

•    Mistake of selling when stock has just entered in overbought zone.
•    Mistake of buying when stock has just entered in oversold zone.
•    Don’t create bias when looking at overbought and sold regions

Summarising the article, indicators are only there to indicate, on their own they cannot initiate trade. One should always refer to price confirming the tool to verify the significance of the indicator reading. Only after confirmation trade should be initiated with stop loss. Markets can remain irrational for longer. One should always remember this while using indicators and oscillators and not tend to get bias.

(This is the third article of our four-part series on 'Technical Analysis'. Shrikant Chouhan is the head of technical research at Kotak Securities.)

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